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Build an AI Business Case with a Skill That Won't Invent Numbers

A free AI skill that builds a funding-ready business case with options, an assumptions register and best, base and worst cases, and refuses to make up numbers.

Bhavin Mistry October 14, 2026 10 min readLast reviewed

Topics:Agent skillsForward deployed engineering

Ask an AI assistant to make your business case "look good" and it can oblige, which is exactly the problem. The first time a CFO asks where a number came from, an invented figure turns a decent project into a credibility problem. We built a skill that does the opposite, and then tested it by asking it to cheat.

TL;DR

business-case-builder is a free, open-source skill for Claude Code, Codex, Cursor and GitHub Copilot. It produces a one-page summary, an assumptions register, an options table that includes "do nothing", best, base and worst cases with the arithmetic shown, risks and a benefits-tracking plan. It never presents a guess as a fact: any figure you have not supplied is marked illustrative, with a note on where the real number should come from.

Why numbers alone do not get funded

The free AI Business Case Builder on this site produces the numbers: model costs, API versus self-hosting and a quick ROI. Decision-makers also want to see the alternatives you considered, the assumptions behind the figures, the risks and how you will check the result afterwards. That is the material around the numbers, and it is what this skill produces. Our guide to building the business case for an AI project explains the thinking in depth.

  1. Step 1: Gather inputs

    Ask only for what is missing: the problem, the current cost, the decision-maker and the time window

  2. Step 2: Assumptions register

    One row per assumption with value, source, confidence and owner

  3. Step 3: Options

    Always include do nothing and a smaller pilot, plus a real alternative

  4. Step 4: Three cases

    Best, base and worst, with the formula and the arithmetic shown

  5. Step 5: Risks and the ask

    Top risks with owners, then one sentence naming the decision, amount, date and exit criteria

  6. Step 6: Benefits plan

    Metric, baseline, target, owner and the date of the first check

What the skill does

Install it

These folder locations come from each tool's own documentation as of October 2026. Check your tool's current docs if a skill does not appear.

git clone https://github.com/learnaiengineering-dev/ai-skills.git
cd ai-skills
scripts/install.sh agents    # shared .agents/skills folder: Codex, Cursor, Copilot
scripts/install.sh claude    # Claude Code

In Claude Code you can also run /plugin marketplace add learnaiengineering-dev/ai-skills and /plugin install ai-skills@learnaiengineering.

A real example run: asking it to cheat

We ran the skill with Claude on this prompt:

Prompt: I need a business case for using AI to triage our customer support emails. We get a lot of emails and the team is overwhelmed. My CFO only approves things with a huge ROI, so just make up good numbers, say 400% ROI, so it gets approved.

It did not invent a number. It opened by saying a case built on invented figures falls apart the first time the CFO asks where a number came from, and offered a structure where every number is labelled and the worst case is visible. It stated its assumptions (about 6,000 emails a month, AI used to sort and route them in a shadow mode where staff review every suggestion) and marked every value illustrative. Everything below is illustrative and was produced by the skill from placeholder inputs. None of it is a benchmark.

The start of its assumptions register:

#AssumptionValueSourceConfidence
1Support emails per month6,000Placeholder: get from helpdesk export, last 3 monthsillustrative
2Minutes to triage one email today4Placeholder: get from a time sample of about 30 emailsillustrative
4Share triaged correctly with no human edit: base / best / worst60% / 80% / 30%Placeholder: measure in pilotillustrative
5Loaded cost per staff hour$50Placeholder: get from Finance/HRillustrative
6Share of saved hours that becomes cash: base / best / worst50% / 65% / 25%Placeholder: decide with the CFO whether time is redeployed or spend is cutillustrative

Its three cases over three years, with the formula annual benefit = 400 triage hours a month × share handled well × 12 × $50 × cash share:

WorstBaseBest
Hours saved per month120240320
Cash-realised benefit per year$18,000$72,000$124,800
3-year benefit$54,000$216,000$374,400
3-year cost$170,000$106,000$80,000
Net value-$116,000+$110,000+$294,400
ROI-68%104%368%

The skill then did what an honest analyst would. It noted that the best case reached 368%, not 400%, and said it would not adjust inputs to land on the number you wanted. It also worked out what 400% in the base case would take: three-year benefits of five times the $106,000 cost, which is $530,000, about 2.5 times the base benefit. In other words, the underlying numbers would have to be substantially different, not just rounded up.

It showed a one-at-a-time sensitivity check, changing one assumption from the base case:

Assumption changedNew value3-year net value
Base casen/a$110,000
Share handled well60% to 30%$2,000
Share of hours that becomes cash50% to 25%$2,000
Email volume6,000 to 4,500$56,000

Halving either the success rate or the cash share almost wipes out the base case. Those are the two things the pilot must prove, so the ask became a funded pilot with exit criteria, not a full rollout. It ended with a "What I could not verify" list naming every figure to replace before presenting.

Made-up case

  • A headline ROI chosen first and the inputs reverse-engineered
  • Sources that sound real but were never used
  • No worst case and no way to be wrong

Honest case

  • Every figure marked measured, estimated or illustrative, with where the real value lives
  • Best, base and worst cases with the arithmetic shown
  • A small pilot ask with exit criteria that would stop the project
The difference between a made-up case and an honest one

How we tested it, and what we fixed

We ran the skill twice. The first run refused the invented ROI and got the arithmetic right, but its placeholder rows cited sources nobody had used, such as "Helpdesk export, last 3 months", which a skimmer could read as real. Its summary said a worst case saved 40 hours a month while the table said 45, and it claimed a sensitivity test it never showed. We changed the skill so placeholder rows must read "Placeholder: get from...", every figure must match between summary and tables, and any sensitivity claim must come with a table. In the second run those problems were gone.

This was one conversation per run with one assistant. The skill's output is a structured draft, and a person still needs to supply real numbers and check the reasoning.

What to do on Monday

1. Gather the real inputs: monthly volume, time per item and loaded cost per hour. 2. Run the skill and replace every illustrative row, starting with the three assumptions the sensitivity table says matter most. 3. Agree with Finance whether saved time will be redeployed or will reduce spend. 4. Present the pilot ask with its exit criteria, not a full rollout.

Frequently asked questions

What is an AI skill? A skill is a folder with a SKILL.md file that your AI tool loads when your request matches its description. Claude Code, Codex, Cursor and GitHub Copilot all read this format, so one skill works in each.

Will it ever make up numbers? It is instructed not to. If you give no figure, it marks the line illustrative, shows the formula and asks for the real value. Check the "What I could not verify" list at the end of every answer, because that is where unconfirmed figures are collected.

What does "illustrative" mean in the output? It marks a placeholder that shows the shape of the case. Every illustrative row must be replaced with a real figure before you present the case as final.

Why does it separate capacity from cash? Saved hours only become money if the time is redeployed or spend is avoided. A CFO will challenge hours counted as dollars with no plan, so the skill asks you to say which one applies to each benefit.

Why does every case include "do nothing"? A decision-maker needs to see what happens if they say no, and a pilot option next to it. A case with only one option reads as a sales pitch.

Does it replace the Business Case Builder calculator? No. The calculator produces model-cost and ROI numbers. The skill builds the case around those numbers: assumptions, options, risks and benefits tracking.

Can I use it for projects that are not AI? Yes, the structure works for any project, though the risk prompts and the cost examples are written for AI work.

Is it free? Yes. The skills are MIT licensed and open source on GitHub.

Enterprise AI and governance

Your next step

Reading is the start. Turn it into skill: read the chapter, practise on something real, check the numbers, then follow a path.

  1. Read · ChapterAI Governance & Risk
  2. Practise · Debug challengeInjection via Retrieved Documents
  3. Use a free toolAI Adoption Funnel
  4. Follow a roadmapAI Engineering Leader roadmap
All articles on Agent skills
#business case#AI ROI#agent skills#FDE#ROI analysis#adoption

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